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User blog:VileMaster/2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season Recap
It seems as if this insane, destructive, and active hurricane season has come to a close at last. The final totals go as follows: *18 Tropical Cyclones *17 Named Storms *10 Hurricanes *6 Major Hurricanes *>$360 Billion in damage *464 Fatalities *At least 223 units of ACE I will be reviewing this season per individual storm and give them each a grade of my own. I will also do retirement chances. Tropical Storm Arlene Ahh, the first storm of the season. I remember it like it was yesterday. Initially forming as an innocent Subtropical Depression that was not expected to intensify, it transitioned into a Tropical Depression and earned the name Arlene. Arlene spun out in the Atlantic without harming anyone or anything. I also thought it looked nice at peak. Didn't expect a storm in April. Grade: B+ Tropical Storm Bret This one was a little interesting. It developed on June 19 and became the earliest named storm east of the Lesser Antilles on record. I knew this was an omen to an active season, not a sign of weakness and a 2013 repeat. This little guy made landfall in South America, the first one to do so since another Bret, in 1993. I thought Bret was interesting to track, but it was fairly weak. Grade: B''' Tropical Storm Cindy Cindy formed alongside Bret on June 20, creating a very rare occurence of two storms active in June at the same time. Despite strong wind shear, Cindy managed to intensify to 60 mph winds before becoming the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Louisiana since 2012's Isaac. I thought Cindy had a unique and strangely pleasing appearance at peak, with a band of weak convection around the sheared center. However, it was ugly for the rest of its life. Cindy overall was a typical June GoM storm. Grade: '''C Tropical Depression Four This was the only storm in 2017 to below tropical storm force, but it had a good reason for it. July is not typically a favorable month for Atlantic TC formation but this little guy spun up anyway. Wasn't forecast to become a namewaster and it gave the MDR one more storm. Grade: C''' Tropical Storm Don Even an insanely active season like 2017 had its missteps. This storm really wasn't great to track and while being short lived and weak, I must give it props for being a Tropical Storm in July, the first since Claudette in 2015. Despite this, I don't like Don for several reasons. It failed to make up for Don 2011 and it fell beneath forecasts. Seeing memes on Twitter made it a little interesting though. Grade: 'D-' Tropical Storm Emily Emily, despite being weak proved as an interesting one. This one rapidly developed off a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico despite little to no model support. I wasn't too happy with seeing one of my favorite names on this list be weak, but it could have been worst. Emily was the second named storm in July this year (the most since 2013!) and it made landfall near Tampa as a 45 mph storm. It was forecast to intensify over the Gulf stream but it fell apart over Florida. Emily also made people think 2017 would be a 2011 repeat (if only). Grade: '''C+ Hurricane Franklin This was the first hurricane of the season and it wasn't too crazy. I was glad to see Franklin become a hurricane for the first time, and a lot of other people were too. Despite struggling in the Caribbean, Franklin organized over the Yucatan Peninsula and quickly spun up into a hurricane in the Bay of Campeche. It was a nice and healthy looking hurricane, with well-organized convection over the center. Franklin caused minimal damage as of November 28, which is good. Grade:' B' Hurricane Gert The first Hurricane Gert since 1999 was pretty awesome to see. Developing from a long-tracked tropical wave, Gert formed near the Bahamas and performed similar to Hurricane Alex in 2004. A large, beautiful hurricane, Gert developed a small eye despite being a fairly large storm over the Gulf stream. It peaked at Category 2 intensity which is higher than forecasted. It's also one of the few storms in 2017 to not impact land, which is good since initially models sent it into the Georgia area. Grade: B+ 'Hurricane Harvey' Oh good lord, here we go. One of the blockbuster storms of 2017 and the new king of destructive hurricanes, Harvey was a worst-case scenario born out of a weak failure. Initially dissipating in the Caribbean shortly after forming, Harvey flew under the radar until it reformed in the Bay of Campeche, rapidly intensified to a solid Category 4 hurricane, and ended the major hurricane drought with a Category 4 landfall in Rockport, Texas. Harvey dropped awfully heavy rain across Texas (namely Houston) for several days. Having caused almost $200 Billion in damage on its own, Texas was devestated by this hurricane and is probably nowhere near done with recovery efforts. Rain peaked at roughly 64 inches and devestating damage resulted. I would give this hurricane a high grade but the damage knocks it down a lot. Grade: B''' '''Hurricane Irma Hey, 2005 called, it wants its destruction back. Right after Harvey came one of the strongest Atlantic hurricanes since the turn of the century, Hurricane Irma. Irma did an impressive rapid intensification stunt before fluctuating due to colder waters and eyewall replacement cycles. It became a Category 5 hurricane on September 5, and reached 185 mph winds, the highest such winds in the Atlantic since 2005. At peak intensity, Irma moved through the Leeward Islands, causing complete destruction in several major Caribbean islands, even rendering one completely uninhabitable. After that, Irma moved inland in Cuba, sparing Florida a much stronger landfall than what could have happened. Irma struck Florida as a Category 3 storm and moved inland, dissipating over the mideast. As of November, Irma has caused $66 Billion in damage and this number could rise. However, Irma is without a doubt one of the most beautiful hurricanes I have ever tracked and that helps the grade a bit. Grade: B+ 'Hurricane Jose' Probably my favorite Atlantic storm this year, Jose finally got his turn in the spotlight, rapidly intensifying into a Category 4 hurricane in the Main Development Region. The storm then ended up becoming the longest lived hurricane of the season, co-existing with hurricanes Irma, Katia, Lee, and Maria. I have no words to describe how happy this storm made me when it became a hurricane. It was 155 mph at peak and may have even been 160. Jose was a gentle giant and didn't hurt anybody, which was welcomed after the disasters before it. It also generated over 40 ACE units for the season, being a vital asset. Grade: A+ Hurricane Katia This storm was alright, I guess. It formed off a trough in the Bay of Campeche and peaked at Category 2 intensity before falling apart at landfall in Mexico. It probably triggered a lot of Katia fans who loved the 2011 storm, but this one could have been worse. It wasn't even supposed to be a hurricane at first! Could've been another of our many majors had it not gotten disrupted by Mexico. It also didn't look very good at peak. But it was another hurricane for 2017 which I can respect. Grade: C''' '''Hurricane Lee Lee was a fun little hurricane that liked to play tricks on us. When it formed, it initially peaked at 40 mph before dissipating due to strong wind shear. The remnants took an unusual path to the north before unexpectedly regenerating in the subtropical Atlantic, and under favorable conditions, intensified to become a beautiful major hurricane. I loved tracking Lee V2 up until it dissipated on September 30. It had a very clear eye for most of its life and was in sharp contrast to the monster below it. Speaking of monsters... Grade: A''' '''Hurricane Maria Welcome back Irma, we didn't miss you. Actually, this isn't Irma, just a stronger storm. But seriously, Maria was a monstrous hurricane that used one of my favorite names this year. It rapidly intensified in the tropical Atlantic, striking Dominica as a Category 5 hurricane. It then peaked in the Caribbean before hitting Puerto Rico at 155 mph winds, causing massive damage, and even starting a humanitarian crisis. Maria was hit very hard by the Island, but developed a large eye and retained Category 3 intensity for some time, before spinning out to sea. While Maria was a stunning storm at peak, the devestation in Puerto Rico cannot be ignored as some people still don't have running water or power. I think this could have been handled better but things are slowly working. Grade: B+ Hurricane Nate Nate was a nice surprise after the end of activity in September. Forming in the Southern Caribbean, Nate intensified and hit Nicaragua, before moving through the Gulf of Mexico and peaking at 90 mph before making landfall in Mississippi. While Nate wasn't very strong, it gave me something to track during an empty weekend and I may be a little bias in that factor. I wish it was a little better looking though. There's a chance Nate could be retired this year, but I don't think that'll happen. Grade: B-''' '''Hurricane Ophelia Ophelia was a big forecast defier. Despite being forecast to remain weak, it became a Category 3 hurricane just south of the Azores, becoming the easternmost Atlantic major ever recorded. It had a big, beautiful eye in a location normally reserved for weak, more subtropical systems. It then proceeded to hit Europe, causing a red sky over Britain and causing over $1 Billion in damage in Europe. It was an erratic hurricane I will remember. Grade: B+ Tropical Storm Philippe As disorganized as Philippe was, I think he got slammed too hard by everyone. I see people giving Philippe an F grade because it ended the hurricane streak. That's pretty picky of some people. But anyways, Philippe was a short lived, yet strong tropical storm that crossed over Cuba and Florida before dissipating. It really wasn't as bad as people say. But it still wasn't a great storm. It got us through another name and three October storms for 2017. That isn't bad. Grade: 'C-' Tropical Storm Rina The final storm of the season (but this could change), Rina was a peaceful storm in the subtropics that didn't hurt anyone while it was tropical. It steadily intensified to peak winds of 60 mph before it lost tropical characteristics. Although it wasn't a hurricane, it was nice to have a storm develop in November, something the active 1995, 2010 and 2012 seasons couldn't do. It also re-developed into an arguably fully-tropical Medicane, which raises the grade a bit. Grade: 'B-' My thoughts on retirement and final words on the season I thought 2017 was an impressive hurricane season that won't see a "sister" season for many, many years (unless 2018 does something crazy). This year shattered records and created new ones several times. I will not forget 2017 for years to come, and I don't expect anyone else here to either. Retirement Here's my thoughts on retirement in 2017 Arlene - 0% - Didn't affect any landmasses. Bret - 0% - While it did make landfall in Trinidad it simply didn't cause enough damage. Cindy - 0.5% - The flooding looked a little bad, but even if the damage is over 500 million it'll be snubbed. Don - 20% - This could be retired for political reasons but I don't see it happening. Emily - 0% - Not enough damage. Franklin - 3% - If we actually get a damage estimate I could be more solid on this one. Gert - 0% - Stayed out to sea and didn't do anything worth retirement. Harvey - '100% - '''You would have to be a complete moron not to retire this. This is the costliest hurricane on record. Harvey's getting retired, no questions asked. Irma - '''100% '- Same as Harvey. Irma was an extremely strong and devastating storm for the Lesser Antilles and Florida. Jose - 1% - Long lived, powerful major. Caused tropical storm force winds on Barbuda but nobody was there to judge the damage if there was any. Little to no damage otherwise. Katia - 5% - Katia has killed 3 people, but damages are likely low and not enough for retirement. Lee - 0% - Lee didn't impact any land, so this isn't even a question. Maria - '100% '- The worst hurricane to ever hit Puerto Rico is not coming back in 2023. Nate - 50% - While I said earlier it didn't seem like a candidate for retirement, it caused more damage than Otto of last year in Nicaragua, which could give Nate the boot. Ophelia - 15% - This isn't likely for a lot of reasons, despite what people may tell you. There is no represenative for the UK & Ireland themselves in the WMO, only for the Caribbean islands. And even so, wind events like Ophelia are common for Europe and this probably isn't the worst they've had. I feel confident that Ophelia will stay another year. Philippe - 0% - Only did minimal damage in Florida and Cuba. Rina - 0% - It didn't impact land while tropical, so it's safe to say Rina is staying. Category:Blog posts